It is my responsibility to contribute to long-term plans for our future activities. We have to anticipate the competitor's behavior and activities will be. Apart from that, we also have to look at trends in the general social and economic environment and be ready to respond to changes in society and changes in the economy as a whole. This is called scenario planning. In our organization, we imagine ways in which the energy industry might change and evolve and what the place oil will be in relation to alternative fuels in 20, 50, or 100 years from now.

We call ourselves futurologists or futurists. Of course, futurology is not an exact science, but there are ways of forecasting or predicting the future in a structured manner. There is the Delphi method, where a panel of experts makes forecasts about a subject independently, and the forecasts are circulated to the other member of the group. Each member then comments on the others’ observations. The process is iterative. Opinions converge and experts reach a consensus. The method can be used to make predictions in a number of different applications.

The technique is based on the idea that a structured group will produce more accurate results than an unstructured one from individuals working on their own. It can be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE).

A related area is risk management. Operating in politically unstable countries is one of the most extreme examples of where we have to manage risk. The dangers there may include the nationalization of assets by the government.

If our computer systems are damaged, for example in a fire, we have business continuity plans, involving back-up machines on another site so that we can carry on working normally.