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So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about. Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors because people thought, "No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger." Of course, people proved that wrong. But one of the reasons it succeeded, aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution, is the timing. That company came out right during the height of the recession when people really needed extra money, and that maybe helped people overcome their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger. Same thing with Uber. Uber came out, incredible company, incredible business model, great execution, too. But the timing was so perfect for their need to get drivers into the system. Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important. Some of our early successes, Citysearch, came out when people needed web pages. GoTo.com, which we announced actually at TED in 1998, was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic. We thought the idea was so great, but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important.

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So take a wild success like Airbnb / that everybody knows about. // Well, / that company was famously passed on / by many smart investors / because people thought, / "No one's going to rent out / a space in their home / to a stranger." // Of course, / people proved that wrong. // But one of the reasons it succeeded, / aside from a good business model, / a good idea, / great execution, / is the timing. // That company / came out / right during the height of the recession / when people really needed extra money, / and that maybe helped people / overcome their objection to renting out / their own home to a stranger. // Same thing with Uber. // Uber came out, / incredible company, / incredible business model, great execution, / too. // But the timing / was so perfect / for their need to get drivers into the system. // Drivers were looking for extra money; // it was very, / very important. // Some of our early successes, / Citysearch, / came out when people needed web pages. // GoTo.com, / which we announced actually at TED in 1998, / was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic. // We thought the idea was so great, / but actually, / the timing / was probably maybe more important. //

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And then some of our failures. We started a company called Z.com, it was an online entertainment company. We were so excited about it – we raised enough money, we had a great business model, we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company. But broadband penetration was too low in 1999, 2000. It was too hard to watch video content online, you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff, and the company eventually went out of business in 2003. Just two years later, when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America, YouTube was perfectly timed. Great idea, but unbelievable timing. In fact, YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started. It wasn't even certain that that would work out. But that was beautifully, beautifully timed. So what I would say, in summary, is execution definitely matters a lot. The idea matters a lot. But timing might matter even more.

Let's follow Bill Gross...

And then some of our failures. // We started a company called Z.com, / it was an online entertainment company. // We were so excited about it / – we raised enough money, / we had a great business model, / we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent / to join the company. // But broadband penetration was too low / in 1999, 2000. // It was too hard to watch video content online, / you had to put codecs in your browser / and do all this stuff, / and the company eventually went out of business in 2003. // Just two years later, / when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash / and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America, / YouTube was perfectly timed. // Great idea, / but unbelievable timing. // In fact, / YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started. // It wasn't even certain that that / would work out. // But that was beautifully, //beautifully timed. // So / what I would say, / in summary, / is / execution / definitely matters a lot. // The idea matters a lot. // But timing / might matter even more. //