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So, I'm gonna use a metaphor to describe how the brain works. It goes something like this: Your brain, my brain, everybody's brain, is trapped in its own dark, silent box called your skull. And the brain has no knowledge of what is going on around it in the world or in the body, right? Because it's in this skull, and it's receiving sensory signals from the sensory surfaces of your body. These signals are the outcomes of some changes in the world or in the body — but the brain doesn't know what the changes are, it's receiving the outcomes. And that is what philosophers and scientists call the 'Reverse inference problem.' You start with an outcome, and you have to guess at the cause.

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So, / I'm gonna use / a metaphor to describe how the brain / works. / It goes something like this: / Your brain, / my brain, / everybody's brain, / is trapped / in its own / dark, / silent box / called / your skull. / And / the brain / has no knowledge / of what is going on / around it in the world / or in the body, / right? / Because it's in this skull, / and it's receiving sensory signals / from the sensory surfaces / of your body. / These signals / are the outcomes / of some changes / in the world / or in the body / — but the brain doesn't know / what the changes are, // it's receiving the outcomes. / And that / is what / philosophers and scientists call / the 'Reverse inference problem.' / You start with an outcome, / and you have to guess / at the cause.

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For example, if you hear a loud bang, it could be a car backfiring, a door slamming, it could be a gunshot. Your brain doesn't know what the causes are, it only knows the effect, and so, it has to guess. And the guess is important, right? Because you would do different things if it's a gunshot versus if it's a windy day that slammed a door. And luckily, it has one other source of information, and that is your past experience. The really cool thing about this—if that wasn't cool enough—is that it's actually doing it predictively. Sometimes scientists talk about this as the brain running a model of the world, but the brain is not running a model of the world; the brain is running a model of its body, and it's doing it in this really interesting way.

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For example, / if you hear a loud bang, / it could be / a car backfiring, / a door slamming, / it could be a gunshot. / Your brain doesn't know / what the causes are, / it only knows the effect, / and so, / it has to guess. / And the guess is important, / right? / Because you would do different things if it's a gunshot versus if it's a / windy day that slammed a door. / And luckily, / it has one other source of information, / and that is your past experience. // The really cool thing about this /—if that wasn't cool enough / —is that it's actually doing it predictively. / Sometimes scientists talk about this as the brain running a model of the world, / but the brain is not running a model of the world; / the brain is running a model of its body, / and it's doing it in this really interesting way.